KUTATÓINTÉZETEK A LÍBIAI FEJLEMÉNYEKRŐL | THINK TANKS ABOUT THE LIBYAN DEVELOPMENTS

Az alábbiakban kutatóintézeti véleményeket olvashatnak a líbiai fejleményekről:

The Libyan Revolution Part I-Roots of Rebellion. Anthony Bell, David Witter. Institute for the Study of War, September 19, 2011

This four-part series provides a detailed narrative of the war in Libya and seeks to explain the underlying dynamics behind the conflict for policymakers contemplating policies regarding Libya’s future. Part One: Roots of Rebellion details Libya’s political history, human terrain, economy, and the Qaddafi regime’s unique political and military structures. It also addresses the early stages of the conflict in February 2011, beginning with the protests in Benghazi that triggered the rebellion, and the formation of the National Transitional Council. This first installment concludes with the spread of unrest to western Libya and the regime’s crackdowns in Tripoli and Zawiyah.

A Conversation with Lindsey O. Graham, by Council on Foreign Relations

Senator Lindsey O. Graham discusses his recent trip to Afghanistan and Uzbekistan, as well as other foreign policy challenges including the evolving situations in Libya and Syria.

Libya’s Nervous Changing of the Guard, by Council on Foreign Relations

As Libya moves ahead with a leadership transition, it faces challenges including restarting the economy, dealing with humanitarian abuses, and the rising influence of Islamists.

Building a New Libya, from by Thomas Carothers. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

As Libya’s new leaders look to consolidate control, domestic and international attention is turning to the process of building a government that is more democratic, representative, and stable.

Why a Rebel Victory in Libya is Better Than a Negotiated Settlement, by Monica Duffy Toft. Harvard Kennedy School

Civil war research shows that conflicts that end with a decisive rebel victory are more likely to result in lasting peace and stability than those wars ended by a negotiated settlement.

Following months of fighting to defeat Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, Libya’s rebels are steadily consolidating power following their victory. As a settlement to Libya’s civil war, this is potentially very good news. Research on civil war shows that conflicts that end in decisive rebel victory are four times more likely to result in lasting peace than those concluded by a negotiated settlement. However, because the rebel victory in Libya came about so quickly, and as a result of foreign intervention, long-term stability may be harder to achieve.

The Way Forward: Building Libya’s New Security Forces. Gordon Lubold. USIP, September 13, 2011

(…) Libya’s security apparatus presents the international community with an opportunity to do it the right way. With Libya’s internal security being the primary concern, creating a security force would likely focus on a police or gendarme force capable of maintaining the rule of law, safeguard the plethora of weaponry Qaddafi left around Libya, and most important, protect the Libyan citizenry.

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